Here's a press release I got back in February. "The
Caribbean's leading resort company, Sandals Resorts
International, has reinforced their scuba diving credentials
after reaching 50,000 certifications to become one
of the premier dive divisions in the world. The award
was bestowed upon the company by PADI Worldwide,
the world's leading scuba diving authority, after reaching
the milestone and now sees them become one of the
world's top five companies for scuba."
I'm not sure what this press release says about the
future of sport diving when it turns out that 50,000 of
PADI's certified divers got their certification card at a
Sandals (or Beaches) resort. Do these folks, on packaged
vacations where they also are kayaking, waterskiing or
parasailing, go on to become serious divers? Will they
buy their own computers and regulators, get housing
for Nikons, and head off on their own to Captain Don's,
CoCo View or the Ocean Hunter?
I suspect the numbers for Sandals' graduates are
very small, indeed. So next time I look at the certification
figures PADI tosses out, my optimism about the economic
future of the sport will be slightly soiled. You see,
I suspect the Sandals' crowd won't be with us for long,
and to consider even a small percentage as real divers
might be a stretch for those dive businesses that use
certification numbers as part of their economic planning.
Surely, 50,000 is good news for PADI and Sandals, but
what does it mean for other businesses?
It's like saying that the future of book stores is on
the rise because last year (I'm guessing here) 274,000
university students graduated with degrees in literature.
Because those graduates will probably choose to do
other things besides buy books, I wouldn't bet on the
bookstores either. At least, not based on a simple graduation
number.
-- Ben Davison